Risk and Opportunities in New Cycle and New Structure
International development agencies, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have repeatedly lowered the growth expectations of the world's countries this year. The consequences of the isolation measures necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic are even worse for economies that are already experiencing downward trends. The interest rates of major economic entities such as the United States, Europe and Japan, have been zero or negative. Due to the unconventional quantitative easing as well as the introduction of financial assistance plans that are as high as 10% or 20% of the GDP, it’s inevitable that the United States and other developed countries will have an economic recession. 



Fig 1. Epidemic Distribution Worldwide
Retrieved from: COVID Map, John Hopkins

According to the current actual detection capacity, it will take about 100 days for the cumulative detection volume to reach 130 million people. Secondly, the third-party inspection in developed countries plays an important role. CDC in the United States will give more testing tasks to public and independent medical laboratory. Moreover, the medical resources of middle and low-income countries are highly dependent on foreign countries, and POCT products are more suitable for wide application (The Lancet, 2020). According to the proportion of external medical resources in total medical expenditure of different income countries, low-income countries, heavily indebted countries and the least developed countries are heavily dependent on the import of medical resources. With the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia worldwide, the emergency medical resources in some countries are badly short of emergency resources. Among them, the global low-income countries have a population of about 700 million. In the face of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, low-income countries urgently need to import to meet the epidemic demand, especially POCT products are more suitable for large-scale promotion. 17% of the urban population in India lives in slums. The current nucleic acid detection capacity and number of isolation wards are insufficient to cope with the outbreak (The Lancet, 2020). Therefore, the Indian authorities actively promote the rapid detection of virus antibodies (POCT). The research and development experience of SARS and MERS provides a good foundation for the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccine. COVID Vaccine, to achieve the optimal immune effect. The technology of traditional vaccine R & D platform is mature, and the addition of innovative R & D platform improves the probability of success of COVID-19 vaccine R & D. on the traditional vaccine R & D platform, more than 70 vaccines have been launched in the world, and relevant technologies are mature and stable. However, it should be noted that the immune response of vaccines is not only related to antigens, but also to the vaccine itself, so as to develop safe and effective vaccines. At present, there are many COVID-19 vaccine projects based on traditional vaccine research and development technology and new vaccine technology in the experimental stage. In the context of global cooperation, at least one of them has a high probability of success. Lung infiltration in SARS Animal model need to be alerted when COVID-19 vaccine is developed. When scientists develop SARS vaccine, they find that pathological immune response of lung infiltration or antibody dependent infection enhancement effect (ADE) occurs in some animal models (The lancet, 2020). This is also encountered in the development of Ebola vaccine and other vaccines. The development of covid-19 vaccine is imminent, and its basic research has been well consolidated, which is still not enough to recognize this unknown risk in clinical trials or later vaccine use.
Following the advent of the coronavirus, the global pharmaceutical industry will have a new cycle and a new structure, which will come with new opportunities as well as challenges.. First of all, the new cycle of bulk drugs and characteristic APIs is gradually emerging. Under the influence of the pandemic, the supply, logistic and production activities of the global industrial chain have been disrupted, and the prices of bulk and characteristic APIs, especially those in demand under the epidemic, have been rising. Because China has implemented aggressive epidemic control measures that have allowed the economy to continue to function,, China is expected to usher in a new cycle of rising volume and price of related APIs. Secondly, the new production capacity of characteristic API is prominent. Due to the pandemic, production in all countries around the world has been suspended. India and other major API countries have restricted exports. Chinese characteristic API enterprises are expected to meet the global API demand by virtue of the advantages of integration of intermediates and API industry chains, and China continues to expand and increase the market share of characteristic API. Third, new technologies such as patented APIs such as CMO / CDMO, and overseas epidemics have affected  the stability of the manufacturing industry chain. The economic crisis will further enhance the cost-effectiveness preference of pharmaceutical enterprises, and the pace of CMO / CDMO industry transfer from overseas to China, which is driven by cost is expected to accelerate in orderto promote the redistribution of the global pharmaceutical industry chain.

In the uncertain stage of vaccine research and development, the global demand for testing capacity continues to increase, and the demand for testing kits is still strong. First of all, there is a huge gap in the supply of overseas testing capacity. As of April 29 2020, it is estimated that the cumulative number of detection kits needed for the comprehensive and effective control of the overseas epidemic is about 125 million, while the actual cumulative number of detection is about 30.61 million. The daily peak detection volume of 42 countries in the world is about 1.3 million, and the global detection capacity needs to be continuously improved (The Lancet, 2020). 

According to the current actual detection capacity, it will take about 100 days for the cumulative detection volume to reach 130 million people. Secondly, the third-party inspection in developed countries plays an important role. The CDC in the United States will give more testing tasks to the public and independent medical laboratories. Moreover, the medical resources of middle and low-income countries are highly dependent on foreign countries, and POCT products are more suitable for wide application (The Lancet, 2020). According to the proportion of external medical resources in total medical expenditure of different income countries, low-income countries, heavily indebted countries, and the least developed countries are heavily dependent on the import of medical resources. With the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia worldwide, the emergency medical resources in some countries are in desperate need of emergency resources. Among them, low-income countries have a population of about 700 million. In the face of the COVID-19 epidemic, low-income countries urgently need to import to meet the epidemic demand, especially given that POCT products are more suitable for large-scale promotion. 17% of the urban population in India lives in slums. The current nucleic acid detection capacity and number of isolation wards are insufficient to cope with the outbreak (The Lancet, 2020). Therefore, the Indian authorities actively promote the rapid detection of virus antibodies (POCT).

The research and development experience of SARS and MERS provides a good foundation for the rapid development of COVID-19 vaccine. The technology of traditional vaccine R&D platforms is mature, and the addition of innovative R&D platforms improves the probability of success of developing a COVID-19 vaccine. With the traditional vaccine R&D platform, more than 70 vaccines have been launched in the world, and relevant technologies are mature and stable. However, it should be noted that the immune response of vaccines is not only related to antigens, but it is also related to the vaccine itself. At present, there are many COVID-19 vaccine projects based on traditional vaccine R&D platforms and new vaccine technology in the experimental stage. In the context of global cooperation, at least one of them has a high probability of success. Lung infiltration in the SARS Animal model needs to be alerted when COVID-19 vaccine is developed. When scientists developed theSARS vaccine, they found that the pathological immune response of lung infiltration or antibodies are  dependent on the infection enhancement effect (ADE) which occurs  in some animal models (The Lancet, 2020). This was also encountered in the development of Ebola vaccine and other vaccines. The development of Covid-19 vaccine is imminent, and its basic research has been well consolidated. However, this is still not enough to recognize the unknown risk in clinical trials or later vaccine use

Reference:
COVID-19 Map. (May 30, 2020), the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. Retrieved online on June 3, 2020, from: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map
The Lancet, (2020), COVID-19 Resource Centre. Retrieved online on June 3, 2020, from: https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
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